Hong Kong FTA Impact: GTAP

The Impact of Hong Kong's Removal of FTA Status on South Korea. Use a dynamic GTAP model to perform the analysis, and please give modeling suggestions, including the setting of shocks.

To analyze the impact of Hong Kong's removal of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) status on South Korea using a dynamic GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model, you would undertake a complex, multi-step process. Dynamic CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models like GTAP are powerful tools for this type of analysis, enabling a detailed understanding of the interrelationships within and across economies over time. Here's an outline of how you might approach this analysis:

1. Setting Up the Model

• Choose the Appropriate Model Version: Ensure you are using the most recent version of the GTAP model that captures the complexities of both South Korea and Hong Kong's economies.
• Data Base: Use the latest GTAP database, which includes comprehensive data on trade, production, and consumption for multiple regions and sectors.

2. Defining the Scenario

• Baseline Scenario: Establish a baseline scenario without the removal of FTA status. This will serve as the counterfactual against which to measure the impact of the policy change.
• Policy Shock: The primary shock in this scenario is the removal of FTA status between Hong Kong and South Korea. This will involve adjusting tariff rates, non-tariff barriers, and possibly other trade-related policies.

3. Setting Shocks in the Model

• Tariff Adjustments: Increase the tariff rates between Hong Kong and South Korea to their most-favored-nation (MFN) levels. This will reverse any tariff concessions made under the FTA.
• Non-Tariff Measures: If the FTA included non-tariff measures (like simplified customs procedures), these should be reversed in the model.
• Trade Elasticities: Adjust trade elasticity parameters to reflect potential shifts in trade patterns due to altered tariffs and non-tariff measures.

4. Running the Simulation

• Dynamic Analysis: Since you are using a dynamic model, run the simulation over a suitable time horizon to capture both short-term and long-term effects.
• Sectoral Analysis: Pay attention to the sectors most likely to be impacted by the change in FTA status, such as those where Hong Kong and South Korea have strong trade ties.
• Macro and Micro Effects: Analyze both macroeconomic (GDP, trade balances) and microeconomic impacts (sectoral outputs, employment).

5. Sensitivity Analysis

• Parameter Sensitivity: Test the sensitivity of your results to key parameters, such as the elasticities of substitution and the rate of return to capital.
• Scenario Variations: Consider variations of the main scenario, such as different rates of tariff re-imposition or different responses from trade partners.

6. Interpretation and Policy Implications

• Economic Impacts: Assess how the removal of FTA status affects both economies in terms of output, trade, prices, and welfare.
• Policy Recommendations: Based on the model's results, provide insights into potential policy responses or mitigation strategies.

7. Reporting

• Detailed Results: Present your findings with detailed data on key indicators.
• Policy Context: Situate your results within the broader context of trade relations and economic policy.
• Limitations: Acknowledge the limitations of your model and the uncertainties inherent in economic forecasting.

8. Additional Considerations

• Updates and Revisions: Keep in mind that the GTAP model and database are periodically updated, which might necessitate adjustments in your analysis approach.
• Collaboration and Expertise: Given the complexity of dynamic CGE modeling, collaboration with experts in the field, or consultation with institutions specializing in CGE modeling, may be beneficial.

This approach should provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of Hong Kong's removal of FTA status on South Korea, offering valuable insights into both the direct effects of the policy change and its broader economic implications.

Which sectors most likely to be impacted by the change in FTA status？ such as those where Hong Kong and South Korea have strong trade ties.

To assess which sectors are most likely to be impacted by the change in FTA status between Hong Kong and South Korea, it's important to understand the trade dynamics between these two economies. Historically, the trade relationship between Hong Kong and South Korea has been significant and diverse. Here are some key sectors that are likely to be most impacted:

1. Electronics and Technology: South Korea is a major exporter of electronics and technology products. With the removal of FTA status, these products may face higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers in Hong Kong, potentially affecting South Korea's exports.

2. Financial Services: Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub means that changes in trade agreements could have implications for financial services, including banking, insurance, and investment services.

3. Textiles and Apparel: This sector has traditionally been an important part of the trade between Hong Kong and South Korea. Changes in trade terms could affect the export-import dynamics in this sector.

4. Automobiles and Machinery: South Korea is known for its automobile and machinery industries. The change in FTA status could impact the import costs and market accessibility for South Korean automobiles and machinery in Hong Kong.

5. Consumer Goods: Both Hong Kong and South Korea are significant markets for various consumer goods, including cosmetics, fashion, and lifestyle products. Changes in tariff structures could influence the competitiveness of these products in each other's markets.

6. Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Products: If either region is a significant exporter of pharmaceuticals and healthcare products to the other, this sector could also see impacts due to changes in trade agreements.

7. Telecommunications: Given South Korea's advancement in telecommunications, any changes in trade terms could affect the export of telecommunication equipment and services.

8. Tourism and Travel Services: While not a traditional 'goods' sector, the service industry, particularly tourism and related services, could be impacted, especially if visa policies or travel costs are affected.

To get a more precise understanding of the sectors most likely to be impacted, it would be advisable to examine recent trade data between Hong Kong and South Korea. This data will provide insights into which sectors are most reliant on the FTA for reduced tariffs and simplified trade procedures. Additionally, a dynamic GTAP model could be used to simulate the specific impacts on these sectors, taking into account the intricacies of supply chains and the interdependencies between different industries within and across both economies.

South Korea Exports to Hong Kong was US27.65 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Electrical and electronic equipment to Hong Kong was US20.47 Billion during 2022.

The data indicating that South Korea's exports to Hong Kong totaled US27.65 billion in 2022, with electrical and electronic equipment accounting for a substantial US20.47 billion, underscores the significant impact that changes in the FTA status could have on specific sectors, particularly the electrical and electronic equipment sector. Given this context, here's a detailed analysis of the potential impacts:

1. Electrical and Electronic Equipment Sector

• High Sensitivity to Tariff Changes: As a major component of South Korean exports to Hong Kong, this sector is highly sensitive to any changes in tariff structures. An increase in tariffs due to the removal of FTA status could lead to higher prices for these goods in Hong Kong, potentially reducing demand.
• Competitive Disadvantage: Higher tariffs could place South Korean electrical and electronic products at a competitive disadvantage compared to products from other countries that might still enjoy lower tariffs or other preferential trade terms with Hong Kong.
• Supply Chain Impacts: The electrical and electronic equipment sector often involves complex supply chains. Changes in trade terms might necessitate a restructuring of these supply chains, affecting production costs and lead times.

2. Other Key Sectors

While the electrical and electronic equipment sector stands out, other sectors should also be considered, especially given the remaining approximately US$7 billion in exports:

• Machinery and Mechanical Appliances: Often coupled with electronic equipment, machinery exports might also be significantly affected.
• Consumer Goods: Including cosmetics, fashion, and lifestyle products, where brand positioning and price sensitivity play crucial roles.
• Automobiles: If a significant part of the remaining exports includes vehicles and automotive parts, this sector could also be impacted.
• Pharmaceuticals and Chemical Products: Given their sensitivity to regulatory changes, any alterations in trade agreements could have significant implications.

3. Broader Economic Implications

• Trade Balance: The electrical and electronic equipment sector's prominence in South Korean exports to Hong Kong suggests a potential significant impact on South Korea's trade balance with Hong Kong.
• Investment Decisions: Companies in the affected sectors might reconsider their investment strategies, including market focus, production locations, and supply chain configurations.
• Economic Growth: As exports contribute to national GDP, significant changes in export volumes and values could influence overall economic growth.

4. Recommendations for Dynamic GTAP Modeling

• Focus on Electrical and Electronic Equipment: Given its dominance in South Korea's exports to Hong Kong, this sector should be a central focus of the GTAP modeling.
• Sector-Specific Shocks: Implement policy shocks specifically tailored to the electrical and electronic equipment sector, considering tariff adjustments, non-tariff barriers, and potential retaliatory measures.
• Scenario Analysis: Conduct various scenarios within the GTAP model to account for different degrees of tariff increases and their impacts on trade volumes and prices.
• Consider Global Supply Chains: Given the global nature of supply chains for electronic equipment, it's important to model not just bilateral trade impacts but also potential shifts in global trade patterns.

In summary, the removal of FTA status between Hong Kong and South Korea could significantly impact the electrical and electronic equipment sector, given its substantial share in South Korea's exports to Hong Kong. A detailed GTAP analysis should focus on this sector while also considering other potentially affected areas. This analysis will provide valuable insights for policymakers and businesses in strategizing responses to these changes.

If we want to analyze the removal of the FTA status in Hong Kong, we will use a dynamic GTAP model assessment of the impact on South Korea's electrical and electronic equipment sector. Please give some suggestions about modeling.

To analyze the impact of the removal of FTA status in Hong Kong on South Korea's electrical and electronic equipment sector using a dynamic GTAP model, a comprehensive and detailed approach is needed. Here are some key modeling suggestions:

1. Defining the Scope and Baseline

• Sector Focus: Concentrate on the electrical and electronic equipment sector, given its significant share in South Korea's exports to Hong Kong.
• Baseline Scenario: Develop a baseline scenario that reflects the current trade situation under the FTA. This will serve as the counterfactual for comparison.

2. Implementing Policy Shocks

• Tariff Adjustments: Quantify the increase in tariffs on electrical and electronic equipment following the FTA removal. This should reflect the shift from FTA rates to the Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates.
• Non-Tariff Barriers: Consider the potential introduction or strengthening of non-tariff barriers that could affect trade flow, like stricter customs procedures or technical standards.

3. Modeling Trade Elasticities

• Price Sensitivity: Assess the price elasticity of demand for South Korean electrical and electronic products in Hong Kong. Higher elasticity implies greater sensitivity to price changes due to tariff adjustments.
• Substitution Effects: Model the potential substitution of South Korean products with alternatives from other countries in response to price changes.

4. Dynamic Elements

• Time Horizon: Choose an appropriate time horizon to capture both the immediate and long-term impacts. Dynamic GTAP models can simulate over several years or decades.
• Adjustment Mechanisms: Account for the time it takes for industries and consumers to adjust to new tariffs and for supply chains to reconfigure.

5. Supply Chain Considerations

• Global Supply Chains: Since the electrical and electronic equipment sector often involves intricate global supply chains, model the potential indirect impacts on South Korea due to changes in these supply chains.
• Domestic Production and Imports: Analyze how changes in trade dynamics might affect domestic production in South Korea and the import of intermediate goods.

6. Economic Impact Analysis

• Sectoral Output and Trade Flows: Examine the impact on output, exports, and imports in the sector.
• Wider Economic Impacts: Assess broader economic implications like effects on GDP, employment in the sector, and trade balance.

7. Sensitivity Analysis

• Parameter Variability: Conduct sensitivity analyses to understand how changes in key assumptions (like elasticities or tariff rates) affect the outcomes.
• Scenario Analysis: Run different scenarios to reflect various possible outcomes of trade negotiations or different responses from businesses and consumers.

8. Reporting and Interpretation

• Detailed Findings: Present comprehensive results, including sector-specific impacts and broader economic effects.
• Policy Implications: Discuss the implications of your findings for trade policy, sectoral strategies, and economic planning.

9. Consideration of External Factors

• Global Economic Conditions: Include considerations of global economic trends that might influence the sector, like technological advancements or shifts in global demand.
• Other Trade Agreements: Account for other existing or potential trade agreements that South Korea and Hong Kong may have with other countries or regions.

Applying these suggestions in your dynamic GTAP model will provide a robust framework for assessing the impacts of the FTA removal on South Korea's electrical and electronic equipment sector. This approach will yield insights that are critical for policymakers, businesses, and other stakeholders in formulating strategic responses to the changing trade landscape.

As you mentioned, the electrical and electronic equipment sector often involves intricate global supply chains. How about using the dynamic GTAP-VA model.

Using the dynamic GTAP-VA (Value-Added) model to analyze the impact of the removal of FTA status in Hong Kong on South Korea's electrical and electronic equipment sector is indeed a sophisticated approach. This model is particularly well-suited for capturing the intricacies of global value chains. Here are some key aspects to consider when using the GTAP-VA model for your analysis:

Understanding GTAP-VA

1. Value-Added Focus: Unlike traditional trade models that focus on gross flows of goods and services, GTAP-VA emphasizes the value added by each country in the production process. This is crucial for sectors like electrical and electronic equipment, where components are often produced in multiple countries before being assembled into final products.

2. Supply Chain Mapping: The model allows for a detailed mapping of supply chains, showing how value is added at each stage and in each country. This can highlight the dependencies and roles of different economies in the supply chain of the sector.

Modeling Approach

1. Define the Scope: Clearly define the scope of the analysis, focusing on the electrical and electronic equipment sector and the relevant supply chain stages that are most likely to be impacted by the FTA removal.

2. Data Collection: Gather detailed data on the value-added processes within the sector, including where components are sourced, where assembly takes place, and the final markets for the products.

3. Policy Shocks Implementation: Implement policy shocks (such as changes in tariff rates) not just at the final export stage but across various stages of the supply chain. This includes intermediate goods that might be impacted.

4. Elasticity and Substitution Effects: Analyze how changes in costs due to tariffs might lead to substitution effects at different stages of the supply chain. For instance, manufacturers might source components from different countries if tariffs increase.

Analysis and Interpretation

1. Trade in Value-Added Terms: Analyze how the removal of the FTA impacts the trade in value-added terms. This includes looking at how much value South Korea adds to the products exported to Hong Kong and how changes in trade policy might affect this.

2. Sectoral Impact: Assess the impact on different stages of the supply chain within the sector, such as component manufacturing, assembly, and final product manufacturing.

3. Wider Economic Impact: Consider the broader implications, such as the effect on GDP, employment, and the balance of trade in value-added terms.

4. Scenario Analysis: Given the complexities of global supply chains, it’s beneficial to run various scenarios to cover a range of possible responses from supply chain actors.

Reporting and Policy Implications

1. Comprehensive Reporting: Present findings that detail not just the impact on trade flows but also on how value addition in the sector is affected across different countries and stages of the supply chain.

2. Strategic Insights: Provide insights for policymakers and businesses on strategic decisions, such as diversifying supply sources, investing in domestic value addition, or exploring new markets.

3. Limitations and Considerations: Clearly articulate the limitations of the model, especially in the context of predicting complex supply chain dynamics and external economic factors.

Using the GTAP-VA model will offer a nuanced understanding of how changes in trade policies affect not just bilateral trade flows but the entire network of value addition in the global supply chain. This is particularly pertinent for sectors like electrical and electronic equipment, where production processes are globally dispersed and interlinked.

Please give me advice on modeling.

Modeling the impact of the removal of FTA status between Hong Kong and South Korea on the electrical and electronic equipment sector using the dynamic GTAP-VA model involves several critical steps. Here's a structured approach to guide your modeling process:

1. Model Setup and Data Preparation

• GTAP-VA Model Selection: Ensure you're using the GTAP-VA model, which is designed to analyze value-added trade and supply chain dynamics.
• Database Update: Use the latest GTAP database to ensure your model reflects the most current global trade patterns, particularly in the electrical and electronic equipment sector.
• Sectoral Focus: Identify and isolate the specific sectors within the GTAP database relevant to electrical and electronic equipment. This may include various sub-sectors depending on the level of detail in the database.

2. Defining the Scenario and Policy Shocks

• Scenario Definition: Clearly define the scenario you're analyzing – the removal of FTA status between Hong Kong and South Korea. Detail the specific changes this will entail in terms of tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
• Policy Shocks Implementation: Implement these changes as shocks within the model. This includes adjusting tariff rates and potentially modeling changes in non-tariff measures that might affect trade flows.

3. Value Chain Analysis

• Map the Value Chain: Understand the value chain of the electrical and electronic equipment sector. Identify where value is added at each stage and in each region.
• Modeling Supply Chain Shifts: Incorporate potential shifts in supply chains due to the FTA removal, such as changes in sourcing patterns or production relocation.

4. Economic Assumptions and Parameters

• Trade Elasticities: Set realistic trade elasticity parameters to reflect how sensitive the sector is to changes in trade costs.
• Dynamic Elements: Incorporate dynamic elements like capital accumulation, technological change, and labor market adjustments over the modeling period.

5. Running the Simulation

• Base Run: Conduct a base run without the policy shock to establish a benchmark for comparison.
• Policy Shock Simulation: Run simulations with the implemented policy shocks to analyze the impacts over time.
• Multiple Scenarios: Consider running multiple scenarios to account for uncertainties in how the market may respond to the policy changes.

6. Sensitivity Analysis

• Test Key Assumptions: Conduct sensitivity analyses on critical assumptions, such as the elasticity of substitution and the speed of adjustment in supply chains.
• Varying Policy Implementation: Test different rates or methods of implementing the policy changes to understand the range of potential outcomes.

7. Analysis and Interpretation

• Impact on Trade Flows: Analyze how the policy shock affects trade flows, both in terms of value and volume.
• Value-Added Effects: Focus on the impact on value-added within the supply chain, identifying which stages and regions are most affected.
• Wider Economic Impacts: Assess broader implications such as changes in GDP, employment, and sectoral outputs.

8. Reporting and Policy Recommendations

• Detailed Findings: Provide comprehensive results detailing sector-specific impacts, changes in trade patterns, and broader economic effects.
• Policy Insights: Offer insights and recommendations based on the findings, addressing potential strategies for businesses and policy responses for governments.
• Limitations and Further Research: Acknowledge any limitations of the model and suggest areas for further research or data collection.

In summary, using the GTAP-VA model for this analysis requires a meticulous approach, from setting up the model and defining scenarios to analyzing results and deriving policy implications. This process will yield valuable insights into the complex interplay of trade policies and global value chains, particularly in the high-tech sector of electrical and electronic equipment.

How can i defining the baseline scenario?

Defining the baseline scenario in a dynamic GTAP-VA model, particularly for analyzing the impact of the removal of FTA status on South Korea's electrical and electronic equipment sector, involves several key steps. The baseline scenario serves as a reference point against which the effects of policy changes are measured. Here's how to define it:

1. Understand the Current Trade Environment

• Current Trade Policies: Document the existing trade policies, tariffs, and non-tariff barriers between Hong Kong and South Korea, particularly focusing on the electrical and electronic equipment sector.
• Economic Data: Gather recent economic data relevant to the sectors of interest, including production, consumption, import, export, prices, and tariff rates.

2. Setting Up the Baseline in GTAP-VA

• Model Configuration: Configure the GTAP-VA model to reflect the current economic and trade conditions between Hong Kong and South Korea. This includes setting up the sectoral and regional disaggregation in the model to focus on the electrical and electronic equipment sector.
• Data Integration: Input the gathered economic data into the model. This ensures that the model's baseline scenario accurately reflects the current state of trade and economic relations.

3. Incorporating Global Trade Dynamics

• Global Context: Since the GTAP-VA model accounts for global trade dynamics, ensure that the baseline scenario also reflects the current global economic environment, including trade relations with other major partners and global market conditions.
• Supply Chain Mapping: Map out the current global supply chains for the electrical and electronic equipment sector, identifying where value is added in different regions.

4. Economic Projections

• Growth Projections: Include projections of key economic indicators like GDP growth, population growth, and technological advancements. These projections should reflect expected trends without the removal of the FTA.
• Stability Assumptions: Assume stability in policies, economic conditions, and other external factors that could impact the sector, barring the removal of the FTA.

5. Model Validation

• Historical Validation: Where possible, validate the baseline scenario against historical data to ensure that the model accurately replicates known economic behaviors and trade patterns.
• Consistency Check: Check for consistency in the baseline scenario across different sectors and regions to ensure there are no anomalies.

6. Documentation

• Detailed Documentation: Clearly document all assumptions, data sources, and methodologies used in creating the baseline scenario. This transparency is crucial for interpreting the results and for comparisons with other studies.

7. Preparing for Scenario Analysis

• Reference Point: Use the baseline scenario as a reference point for analyzing the impact of the removal of the FTA. Any changes in the model outputs in alternative scenarios will be compared against this baseline.

8. Sensitivity Analysis

• Baseline Sensitivity: Before moving to scenario analysis, conduct a sensitivity analysis of the baseline scenario to understand how sensitive the model is to changes in key parameters.

In summary, defining a baseline scenario in the GTAP-VA model involves setting up a detailed and accurate representation of the current economic and trade environment, particularly focusing on the electrical and electronic equipment sector. This scenario should capture not only the bilateral trade relations between Hong Kong and South Korea but also the global trade dynamics and supply chains that impact the sector.