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S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 3, 2023 (insight.factset.com)


At the end of the peak weeks of the Q3 earnings season for the S&P 500, both the number of positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of these earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The S&P 500 is now reporting year-over-year growth in earnings for the first time since Q3 2022.

Overall, 81% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2023 to date. Of these companies, 82% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%. If 82% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since Q3 2021 (also 82%). In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.6%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive earnings surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors), partially offset by negative earnings surprises reported by companies in the Health Care sector, were responsible for the increase in overall earnings for the index over this period. Since September 30, positive earnings surprises reported by companies in the Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, and Communication Services sectors, partially offset by downward revisions to EPS estimates and negative earnings surprises for companies in the Health Care sector, have been the largest contributors to the increase in the earnings for the index during this period.

As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth for the third quarter is 3.7% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 2.6% last week and an earnings decline of -0.3% at the end of the third quarter (September 30).

If 3.7% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the first quarter of year-over-year earnings growth reported by the index since Q3 2022.

Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials.

In terms of revenues, 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 68% and below the 10-year average of 64%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 0.7% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 2.0% and below the 10-year average of 1.3%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Health Care sector) were responsible for the increase in overall revenues for the index over this period. Since September 30, upward revisions and positive revenue surprises for companies in the Energy and Health Care sectors have been the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index during this period.

As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the third quarter is 2.3% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 2.1% last week and a revenue growth rate of 1.6% at the end of the third quarter (September 30).

If 2.3% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 11th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Eight sectors are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues, led by the Energy and Materials sectors.

Looking ahead, analysts expect (year-over-year) earnings growth of 3.9% for Q4 2023, which is below the estimate of 8.1% on September 30. For CY 2023, analysts predict (year-over-year) earnings growth of 0.6%, which is below the estimate of 0.8% on September 30. For CY 2024, analysts are calling for (year-over-year) earnings growth of 11.9%, which is below the estimate of 12.2% on September 30.

S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 3, 2023

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Stock Market News for Nov 13, 2023 - November 13, 2023 - Zacks.com (www.zacks.com)


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U.S. stock markets closed sharply higher on Friday reversing previous day’s sharp decline. Market participants ignored the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent warning of interest rate hike. All three major stock indexes ended in positive territory. For the week, these indexes have finished in positive zone too.

### How Did The Benchmarks Perform?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) jumped 1.2% or 391.16 points to close at 34,283.10. Notably, 26 components of the 30-stock index ended in positive territory, while 4 ended in negative zone. The blue-chip index closed above the psychological barrier of 34,000 after the gap of a single day.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 13,798.11, surging 2.1% due to strong performance of large-cap technology stocks. The tech-laden index posted its biggest single-day percentage gain since May 26.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.6% to finish at 4,415.24. The broad-market index posted its highest closing level since Sep 19. All 11 broad sectors of the benchmark ended in positive territory. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) advanced 2.6%, 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively.

The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 7.3% to 14.17. A total of 10.2 billion shares were traded on Friday, lower than the last 20-session average of 11 billion. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.7-to-1 ratio. On Nasdaq, a 1.6-to-1 ratio favored advancing issues.

Stock Market News for Nov 13, 2023 - November 13, 2023 - Zacks.com

### Government Bond Yields Stabilize 

Wall Street regained momentum since the beginning of November primarily owing to the stabilization of the U.S. government bond yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note dropped to 4.646% after spiking to more than 5.1% the last week of October. The yield on the long-term 30-Year U.S. Treasury Note also dropped during this period.

Notably, on Nov 9, in his speech at the International Monetary Fund, the fed Chair maintained his hawkish stance and hinted at more interest rate hikes to bring down inflation to the central bank’s target of 2%. However, market participants ignored that warning.

A lower market risk-free rate of return is positive for growth sectors like technology, communication services and consumer discretionary. Consequently, stock prices of Microsoft corp. (MSFT Quick Quote【82† MSFT】  -  【86†Free Report】) , Apple Inc. (AAPL Quick Quote【81† AAPL】  -  【87†Free Report】) and Meta Platforms Inc. (META Quick Quote【83† META】  -  【88†Free Report】) surged 2.5%, 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively. Microsoft and Meta Platforms currently carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see【89† the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here】.

The University of Michigan reported that preliminary consumer sentiment index for November declined to 60.4 from October’s final reading of 63.8. This is the lowest reading since May. The consensus estimate was 63.7. The sub-index for current condition fell to 65.7 in November from 70.6 in October. The sub-index for expectations slid to 56.9 in November from 59.3 in October. Both sub-indexes recorded lowest reading since May too.

Consumer’s expectations for inflation rate this year increased to 4.4% in November from 4.2% October. Over a period of five-year, consumers expect inflation to average 3.2%, up from 3% in October, marking the highest since March 2011.

Last week was a strong one for U.S. stock markets. The three major stock indexes – the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite – gained 0.7%, 1.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Wall Street witnessed two consecutive weeks of positive closing as the concern for more interest rate hikes reduced to a good extent resulting in the stabilization of government bond yields.

S&P 500 vs NASDAQ: Analysis

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S&P 500 vs NASDAQ: Analysis

S&P 500 Analysis (as of November 2023)

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